超清版 GB/T 44213-2024 天气预报检验 强对流天气

ICS 07.060
CCS A 47
中华人民共和国国家标准
GB/T 44213—2024
天气预报检验　强对流天气
Weather forecast verification—Severe convective weather
2024-07-24 发布2025-02-01 实施
国家市场监督管理总局
国家标准化管理委员会发 布

目　　次
前言 ····································································································· Ⅲ
1 范围 ·································································································· 1
2 规范性引用文件 ······················································································ 1
3 术语和定义 ··························································································· 1
4 检验内容和检验指标 ················································································· 1
5 检验指标计算 ························································································· 2
5.1 二维列联表 ······················································································ 2
5.2 TS 评分计算 ····················································································· 2
5.3 命中率计算 ······················································································ 2
5.4 空报率计算 ······················································································ 3
5.5 漏报率计算 ······················································································ 3
5.6 预报偏差计算 ···················································································· 3
6 实况信息的确定 ······················································································ 3
参考文献 ·································································································· 4


前　　言
本文件按照GB/T 1.1—2020《标准化工作导则　第1 部分：标准化文件的结构和起草规则》的规
定起草。
请注意本文件的某些内容可能涉及专利。本文件的发布机构不承担识别专利的责任。
本文件由中国气象局提出。
本文件由全国气象防灾减灾标准化技术委员会（SAC/TC 345）归口。
本文件起草单位：国家气象中心。
本文件主要起草人：唐文苑、蓝渝、曹艳察、毛旭、韩旭卿。

1　范围
本文件规定了强对流天气预报的检验内容和检验指标，并描述了TS 评分计算和实况信息确定的
方法。
本文件适用于强对流天气预报的质量评估、业务管理等。
2　规范性引用文件
本文件没有规范性引用文件。
3　术语和定义
下列术语和定义适用于本文件。
3.1　
强对流天气　severe convective weather
大气中对流发展旺盛时产生的剧烈天气总称。
注：通常包括短时强降水、雷暴大风、冰雹、龙卷等任意一种或几种天气现象。
3.2　
TS 评分　threat score
对天气事件“发生或不发生（有或无）”预报准确性的一种检验度量。
注：通常用TS 表示。其值为事件发生的正确预报次数与预报次数和漏报次数之和的比率，也叫关键预报成功指数
（Critical Success Index，CSI）。
4　检验内容和检验指标
检验内容包括短时强降水、雷暴大风、冰雹、龙卷等强对流天气事件的有无预报。检验指标包括
TS 评分、命中率、空报率、漏报率及预报偏差。表1 规定了强对流天气检验内容和检验指标。
表1　强对流天气检验内容和检验指标
检验内容检验指标
短时强降水预报TS评分、命中率、空报率、漏报率及预报偏差
雷暴大风预报TS评分、命中率、空报率、漏报率及预报偏差
冰雹预报TS评分、命中率、空报率、漏报率及预报偏差
龙卷预报TS评分、命中率、空报率、漏报率及预报偏差
GB/T 44213—2024
1
5　检验指标计算
5.1　二维列联表
强对流天气预报检验过程中，通常制作事件预报和事件观测实况组成的二维列联表，统计事件发生
的正确预报次数、空报次数、漏报次数以及事件不发生的正确预报次数，以上统计量作为检验指标函数
的变量用于计算相应的检验指标。表2 规定了二维列联表。
表2　二维列联表
强对流天气事件预报
强对流天气事件实况
有无
有A B
无C D
　　表中：
　　A─事件发生的正确预报次数；
　　B─预报事件发生，但实际